NHL Betting Simulator
Every leg is priced by how often it happens across 20,000 simulated games, and every combo by how often all of its legs happen in the same game.
The most likely game, play by play
Matchup breakdown
MoneyPuck numbers are from last season. ShotPropz numbers are this season so far, so they are a small sample.
How the sim did
Biggest line moves
How the best sportsbook price for this game has moved since the first pull we have (the earlier time is under “Was”). ▲ means the book now gives the bet a better chance, ▼ a lower chance. A player’s alternate lines count once.
Top 10 bets the sims like more than the price
For the game you picked above, every leg a sportsbook posts, ranked by how far the sim’s percentage sits above the chance the best sportsbook price implies. The price’s implied percentage includes the book’s cut, so these gaps are before any margin.
The sim is built from market prices, so a gap shows where its model of the game (lines, power plays, game flow) gives a bet a different chance than the book priced it. It is not a sure edge. Ladders of one player’s lines count once, and bets the sim gives under a 25% chance are left out, so longshots do not crowd the list. Power-play props and both-teams-to-score in the 3rd are not ranked, because the sim is not tuned to them (see below).
Ask about props
Ask in plain English, like “What are the chances MacKinnon scores and Colorado wins?” Every number in an answer comes from the 20,000 simulated games. It runs right on this page, with no account or outside service.
Legs
How the sims work
We play each game 20,000 times with a model built from market prices. A bet’s number is how often it happened. A combo’s number is how often every leg happened in the same game, so legs that move together are counted properly. We checked how strongly the sim ties teammates together against 320 completed 2025–26 games. A combo’s gap to its legs bought separately is the sim’s assumption, not a proven edge.
Sportsbooks show odds with their implied percentage, and Kalshi and Polymarket show cents. An empty price column means nothing is posted yet. Lines, power-play units, and starting goalies come from Daily Faceoff, so confirm them before game time. Ice time and season rates come from the NHL, team and player expected goals and shots from MoneyPuck, and shots and goals against by position from ShotPropz. Power-play props and both teams to score in the 3rd are not tuned to the books, so they are shown but not ranked.
How to use it
- Pick a game, then open a group to see each bet’s sim chance next to the best price.
- Tap bets to build a ticket. It shows how often every leg happened in the same game. Fewer legs give steadier numbers.
- Type the quote a sportsbook (like +150) or exchange (like 45) shows for the combo. If its implied chance is below the sim’s, the combo is cheaper than the sim says it is worth.
- Or just ask in plain English in the box above.
Model estimates, not betting advice. The sim does not know about injuries or lineup changes after the prices above were pulled.